The Story This Week

Inventory's ticking down. Buyer activity dipped slightly. But prices? They just had a surprise jump. Even with mortgage rates softening a bit, the market's sending mixed signals and that's worth paying attention to.

Here's what changed this week in Pembroke Pines:

What the median price jump really means: A $35,500 spike in one week. That's not a typo, and it's not sustainable momentum, it's inventory mix. When lower priced homes sell first and higher priced inventory dominates new listings, the median climbs fast. This doesn't mean every home is worth $35K more than last week. It means the type of homes selling right now skewed higher. Combined with falling inventory and faster days on market, it signals selective buyer activity. Serious buyers are moving on quality properties, but they're fewer in number.

After a strong buyer's market last week, this week's data tells a more complicated story.

New listings dropped to 59 (down from 67). Pending contracts barely moved, 36 this week vs. 37 last week. And while days on market improved from 50 to 45, the real headline is the $35,500 median price jump to $499,500.

Mortgage rates also dropped slightly to 6.18% (from 6.22%), giving buyers about $23/month in breathing room on a typical loan.

But here's the tension: Inventory is shrinking. Buyer activity is flat. And prices just spiked.

That's not the setup for a runaway market, but it's also not a market that's handing deals to buyers on a silver platter. This is a market in transition, caught between falling inventory and cautious demand.

Here's what's really happening and what it means if you're making moves in the next 30–60 days.

Last week, you had leverage. This week, that leverage is getting tested.

Inventory dropped 12%, from 67 new listings to just 59. That's the second straight week of fewer options hitting the market. Meanwhile, buyer activity stayed essentially flat (36 contracts vs. 37 last week).

And the median price? $499,500 — up $35,500 from last week.

Let's be clear about what this means:

You have fewer options. With inventory dropping two weeks in a row, your pool of available homes is shrinking. The homes that are coming on the market are skewing higher in price, which pushes the median up even if individual home values aren't necessarily climbing.

You're facing less competition, but not zero competition. 36 homes went under contract this week. That's not a feeding frenzy, but it's also not dead. The buyers still active are serious, pre-approved, and moving quickly on homes they want.

The math just got harder. That $35K price increase costs you about $214/month in principal and interest, even with rates dropping slightly to 6.18%. Yes, the lower rate saves you $23/month on the loan itself, but the price jump overwhelms that benefit.

The move for buyers:

If you've been waiting for prices to fall before jumping in, understand this: falling inventory usually precedes rising prices, not falling ones. When supply tightens and demand holds steady (or rebounds), prices go up.

And here's the reality: Rates dropped slightly to 6.18% (from 6.22%). That's about $23/month in savings on a $474,525 loan. But the $35K price increase costs you $214/month more. Net impact vs. last week: You're paying $191/month more.

Watch for:

Here's the reality: Inventory dropped. Days on market shortened. And median price jumped $35K.

59 new listings hit the market this week, down from 67 last week. Meanwhile, 36 homes went under contract, basically unchanged from last week's 37.

That's not a seller's market, but it's not the strong buyer's market we saw last week either. Things are tightening.

And here's what it means for you: If you price right, you'll move faster than you would have last week.

Median days on market dropped from 50 to 45. That's meaningful. Buyers are still out there, and when they find what they want, they're pulling the trigger faster.

But don't mistake this week's $35K median price jump as a green light to overprice your home. That spike reflects what type of homes sold, not a sudden surge in value across the board. If you price based on this week's median instead of comparable sales, you'll sit.

The homes that are moving in 45 days? They're priced at or slightly under recent comps, show beautifully, and are marketed aggressively. The homes sitting 70, 80, 90+ days? Overpriced, poorly presented, or both.

The move for sellers:

Price strategically from day one. Don't use this week's median price spike as justification to test the market high. Price at or slightly under recent comps in your neighborhood to generate immediate interest. The goal is multiple showings in the first two weeks, not months of hoping.

Make your home show-ready. Professional photos. Fresh paint. Decluttered. Staged if possible. Minor repairs done. With fewer listings hitting the market, your home will get more eyeballs. Make sure those eyeballs see quality.

Be ready to negotiate (but less than last week). Buyers still have some leverage, but it's shrinking. They're still asking for inspection contingencies and closing cost help, but you're in a slightly stronger position to push back than you were last week.

Market proactively. Your agent needs to reach buyers directly with email blasts, social media, open houses, targeted outreach. With only 59 new listings this week, your home can stand out if it's marketed right.

If your home sits longer than 60 days in this market, you're overpriced. Period.

The good news? Serious buyers are still active. They're pre-approved, motivated, and ready to close but only on homes that are priced right and show well.

The bad news? If you're not one of those homes, you'll sit and watch while the well priced properties move in 45 days or less.

The breakdown:

Monthly Principal & Interest: $2,913

Plus:

All-in monthly cost: $3,729–$4,229

Bad news:

The $35,500 jump in median price from last week ($464,000 to $499,500) costs you about $214/month in principal and interest. Rates dropped from 6.22% to 6.18%, saving you about $23/month on a $474,525 loan.

Combined impact vs. last week: $191/month more expensive.

The math that matters:

To comfortably afford a $499,500 home with a $3,729–$4,229/month payment (using the 28% front-end ratio), you need:

Annual household income: $159,000–$181,000

If you're using a more conservative 25% ratio (recommended for long-term financial health):

Annual household income: $179,000–$203,000

Translation: The buyers still active in this market aren't average. They're high earners, cash heavy, or willing to stretch. The middle is getting squeezed harder with every price increase.

Here's my take on where we're headed based on this week's activity:

Scenario 1: Inventory Stays Tight, Prices Hold or Climb (Most Likely)

If new listings stay in the 55–65/week range and pending contracts hold around 35–40:

What this means: This isn't a runaway seller's market, but it's no longer the strong buyer's market we saw two weeks ago. Inventory is the key variable and if it stays low, prices won't fall. Buyers need to move decisively on good properties. Sellers who price right will do well.

Scenario 2: Inventory Surges, Buyer Leverage Returns (Possible)

If new listings jump back above 70/week and pending contracts stay below 35:

What this means: We flip back to last week's buyer's market dynamic. More options, less urgency, more negotiating power for buyers. Sellers would need to price aggressively again.

If mortgage rates drop below 6.0%:

What this means: Affordability improves, sidelined buyers flood back in, and competition intensifies. The buyer advantage evaporates completely.

My bet?

We're heading into Scenario 1 for the next 30 days. Inventory will stay tight in the 55–65/week range, buyer demand will remain selective, and days on market will hold in the 40–50 range.

But: If inventory rebounds above 70 new listings/week, we could shift back toward Scenario 2 and renewed buyer leverage. Watch the data closely.

Here's what I'm seeing at the micro level this week:

High Activity:

Slower Activity:

What this tells us:

The market is bifurcating. Affordable homes ($400K–$500K) are moving steadily. Luxury homes ($800K+) are sitting. The middle ($500K–$700K) depends heavily on location, condition, and pricing.

This week's data is a reality check: the strong buyer's market we saw last week is softening.

59 new listings this week, down from 67. Only 36 homes under contract. Median price up $35K to $499,500. Days on market down to 45.

This isn't a seller's market yet, but the buyer advantage is shrinking.

For buyers: You still have some leverage, but less than you did last week. If you see something that fits your criteria, don't wait around thinking prices will fall. They might not. The math is working against you as inventory tightens.

For sellers: You're in a better position than you were last week, but don't get greedy. The right price and a sharp first impression still matter more than the median price you saw in a newsletter. Price based on recent comps in your neighborhood, not this week's median spike.

The homes that are moving are priced right, show beautifully, and are marketed hard. The homes that aren't? Overpriced, poorly presented, or both.

This isn't a runaway market, but it's not sleepy either. Stay sharp out there.

What are you seeing in your neighborhood? More "For Sale" signs? Homes moving faster? Hit reply and let me know. I read every response.