Will the Fed Cut Rates in December? Don’t Bet on It.

A split at the top means mortgage relief is on hold for now.

Author

Mike Ugarte
November 21, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

What Happens Next Could Reshape Your Homebuying Power

Just a month ago, Wall Street was betting big on a December rate cut. Now? It’s 50/50.

Fed officials are sharply divided. Some say inflation is still too sticky, others worry the job market is softening. And that uncertainty is keeping mortgage rates high.

Hisham Ibrahim, PhotoDisc, Getty Images

What You Need to Know

Here are some key takeaways from the article:

  • The Fed is deeply split: Some want to cut rates to help a weakening job market, others want to hold steady to fight inflation.

  • Mortgage rates likely stay elevated in the short term. No clear path to relief in December.

  • The last time the Fed had this many potential dissenting votes was in 1992.

  • Confusion isn’t just about inflation it’s also driven by missing economic data due to the government shutdown.

  • As of now, the market sees a 50% chance of a December rate cut, down from 94% last month.

Bottom Line:

Don’t wait around for rates to drop before making a move. The Fed is sending mixed signals, and mortgage rates aren’t likely to fall meaningfully unless the job market tanks and that’s not something anyone’s rooting for.

If you’re planning to buy or refinance, focus on what you can control: your budget, your credit, and the timing that works for your life. When the Fed does finally cut, you can always refi.